Myths About the "Jewish Vote"

On CNN, anchors are already playing with their favorite toy, the huge stretch-and-pull video screen, where you can zoom into states, counties and districts and color them blue or red. Analysts are full of talk about Iowa and New Hampshire. And they’re using a short phrase that has been dormant for three years: “the Jewish vote.”

Oh, how we love to dwell on this minute slice of the American electorate. If for every two Jews there are three opinions, then for every Jewish voter you have at least as many political mavens eager to turn his or her single vote into a trend.

It’s early in the presidential election run-up, so before the Jewish vote is analyzed beyond recognition, let’s put to rest a few of the myths we will soon be hearing.

• Myth: Polling Jewish voters can predict how Jews will vote.

It usually doesn’t. Any pollster will tell you that trying to reach a 2 percent slice of the population—one that is geographically diverse, doesn’t always admit to religious affiliation and has no formal database—is a nightmare (Religion, thank God, is not included in the census questionnaire or in any other official document).

The sample sizes in national polls are extremely small. For instance, a Gallup poll in April 2008 had 24,290 participants but only 632 Jews. To get a real sense of how Jews are going to vote, you either need to poll many more people, which is extremely expensive, or poll repeatedly over time to detect trends. Polls targeting a specific voting district with a large Jewish population can give more accurate results but don’t help much with the national picture.

• Myth: Jews are becoming increasingly Republican.

They aren’t. There’s a whole cottage industry of Jewish activists trying to prove either that Jews are turning Republican or that they are sticking to the Democratic side. Both groups are wasting their time.

It is true that Republicans are making small and steady strides into the Jewish community. The Republican Jewish Coalition is growing in influence, Jewish donors seem to be increasing their giving to Republican candidates (though it’s hard to tell), and polls show younger Jews becoming more open to conservative economic ideas. But take a look at the past three decades of exit polls, which are more reliable than pre-election polls, and the numbers are clear: Jews vote overwhelmingly Democratic. In 1984, Jews voted 67 to 31 percent for Mondale over Reagan; in 2008, it was 78 to 21 for Obama over McCain. With time, the alliance between Jews and the Democratic Party could take a hit, but for now this is such a subtle trend that it really isn’t worth the volumes written about it.

• Myth: Jews can tip a swing state.

Rarely. The 2000 elections helped establish the myth that Jewish voters hold the power to decide a tight race. As election officials scrutinized ballots in Florida, some seemed to see an elderly Jewish swing voter behind every hanging chad. Florida remains an important battleground, and given the divided political makeup of the state and its large Jewish population, Jewish sun birds really can make a difference. Ohio is also a state where Jewish voters could play a role in a close race, although so far they haven’t. But the vast majority of Jewish voters vote in states that aren’t really in play, like New York and California, and their vote will hardly be noticed.

• Myth: Jewish money bankrolls election campaigns.

Maybe. It is commonly believed that more than half of political donations to Democratic races and more than a third of those to Republican races come from Jewish donors. Again, there are no hard numbers here, but counting the Cohens and Goldmans on campaign disclosure lists can give a strong impression that Jews are heavily involved in political giving.

But there are at least two caveats. With the Supreme Court’s relaxing of limitations on corporate advocacy donations, the Jewish proportion of overall donations is expected to decline. And the emergence of online giving as a major funding source could dilute the importance of large donors and bundlers.

• Myth: Israel is a deciding factor for Jewish voters.

Not true. Poll after poll, survey after survey, show that Jewish Americans love Israel and want their elected officials to support Israel, but don’t view this issue as decisive. Topping the Jewish voter’s priority list are economic and social issues. Israel is somewhere in the middle.

Not that Jewish voters don’t care about Israel. They do. They see it as a threshold issue, a requirement any candidate needs to satisfy before being considered. But that just means they need to know that their candidate supports Israel’s security, votes in favor of foreign aid to Israel and does not believe in a forced solution for the Palestinian conflict. This is a low threshold, which basically leaves in almost all politicians, with libertarians Ron and Rand Paul probably the only exceptions.

There are other pitfalls to watch for in election season. One is religious sensitivity. Someone on the campaign trail of some candidate is bound to blurt out a statement that will send shivers throughout the Jewish community (remember Wesley Clark’s “New York money people”?). In most cases, it will indicate lack of sleep rather than outright anti-Semitism.

Then again, if the gaffes don’t bother you, the pandering might. Here’s just a taste of what we’ll see: candidates in kippas, campaign Seder nights, helicopter trips over Israel, and a lot of broken Hebrew and Yiddish greetings from politicians hoping to score points.

Don’t be offended. It’s just their way of saying, “Dear Jewish voters, we’re thinking of you.” At least once every four years.

Nathan Guttman is the Washington Bureau Chief of the Forward.